Alaves and Osasuna meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza with seven points apiece after three La Liga matches, making this an early contest between two of the division’s surprise packages. Alaves are fourth and Osasuna are sixth, according to Sports Mole, while both arrive unbeaten. Alaves’ recent sequence is W-D-W, including a 1-0 home victory over Villarreal, and Osasuna’s is D-W-W after beating Getafe 1-0. The result could lift either side into the leading group before the next round. Football Whispers reports that Alaves are without Toni Martinez and suspended Facundo Garces, while Osasuna are reportedly missing Jorge Herrando through injury and Aimar Oroz.
Alaves most often use a 5-3-2, with a 3-5-2 also deployed, while Osasuna have used 5-4-1, 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1 once each. The statistical edge is in Alaves’ attack, rated at 63% against Osasuna’s 38%, although both defences score 50% and both have 93% last-five defensive ratings. Alaves average 1.7 goals per game across their last five, compared with Osasuna’s 1.0. The recent meetings point towards a competitive fixture: the last ended 2-2 in April 2026, while the previous four produced one Alaves win, three draws and one Osasuna win. Osasuna won 3-0 in December 2025.
The model makes Alaves and the draw equally prominent at 45% each, leaving Osasuna with only a 10% away-win probability. Its predicted outcome is therefore Alaves or draw, alongside a total below 3.5 goals, with home goals below 2.5 and away goals below 1.5. Both teams show 78% form across their last five matches, but Alaves carry the stronger attacking figure and have scored 5 goals this season, against Osasuna’s 3. The hosts have conceded only once, keep two clean sheets and have won both home games. Osasuna have also conceded once and kept two clean sheets, but have failed to score once and have only one away fixture recorded.
Pinnacle prices Alaves at 2.33, the draw at 3.11 and Osasuna at 3.55. Those figures imply 43%, 32% and 28% respectively, compared with the model’s 45%, 45% and 10%; the clearest 1X2 value is therefore the draw, while the home price offers only a marginal edge. Under 2.5 goals is 1.56, an approximate 64% implied probability, and suits the low-scoring profile: both teams concede 0.3 per game, while the model expects fewer than 3.5 goals overall. The model does not give an exact under-2.5 probability, so that market carries less statistical precision than the draw. These are the strongest available betting angles.
Betting Tips
- Draw @ 3.11 — the model assigns a 45% probability, compared with Pinnacle’s 32% implied probability.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.56 — both Alaves and Osasuna concede 0.3 goals per game this season.