Alaves vs Valencia - La Liga Preview

Alaves welcome Valencia to Estadio de Mendizorroza with sharply contrasting starts to the La Liga campaign. Alaves have taken 10 points from five matches, winning three, drawing one and losing one, although Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Racing Santander ended their unbeaten opening. Their three home fixtures have all brought victories. Valencia have one point, remain without a win and have lost their last four, including a 1-0 reverse at Sevilla. Three points matter to both sides: Alaves aim to stay in the upper reaches, while Valencia need an immediate response at the foot of the table. Reports also highlight Valencia’s lack of a permanent head coach following Carlos Corberan’s dismissal.

Alaves’ preferred 3-5-2, also used alongside a 5-3-2, offers a more attacking platform than Valencia’s predominantly defensive 5-4-1, with one outing in 4-4-1-1. The hosts’ recent attack rating is 61% and their defence 72%, while Valencia register just 6% and 44% respectively. Alaves average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game; Valencia average 0.2 and 2.0. The recent head-to-head record is competitive, with Alaves winning two, drawing two and losing one of the last five. Valencia won the latest meeting 3-2 on 8 March 2026, but the previous three ended 0-0, 1-0 and 2-2.

The model selects Alaves, assigning a 45% home-win probability, 45% to the draw and only 10% to Valencia. That makes the predicted outcome narrower than the overall comparison, which favours Alaves 76.7% to 23.3%, with advantages in form, attack, defence, Poisson projection and goals. Alaves’ W-D-W-W-L sequence contrasts with Valencia’s D-L-L-L-L, while the hosts have scored 11 and conceded five. Valencia have scored once and conceded 10, failed to score in four matches and won neither of their away games. Alaves have also kept two clean sheets and possess a perfect three-from-three home record. The goals signals point towards under 3.5 Alaves goals and under 1.5 Valencia goals.

Pinnacle’s 1.78 price makes Alaves a 56% implied chance, notably above the model’s 45%, so the home win lacks obvious value despite the strong home record. The draw is priced at 3.55, implying 28%, against the model’s 45%, making it the clearest value angle if the statistical forecast is followed. Valencia at 5.29 implies 19%, considerably higher than the model’s 10%. In the goals market, Under 2.5 is available at 1.76 and fits Valencia’s 0.2-goal average, four failures to score and 2.0 conceded per game, although Alaves’ 2.2 scoring average adds some risk. The betting tips therefore favour the draw and a restrained total.

Draw @ 3.55 — Pinnacle implies 28%, while the model gives the draw a 45% probability.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.76 — Valencia average 0.2 goals per game and have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Alaves to win @ 1.78 — the hosts have won all 3 home matches, despite the price implying a 56% chance against the model’s 45%.