AS Roma vs Cagliari Preview, Prediction & Odds - Serie A

AS Roma face Cagliari in Serie A on Tuesday 27 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring AS Roma at a 45% win probability. Roma remain unbeaten after eight league matches, collecting five wins and three draws, while their latest outing ended 3-3 at Napoli. Cagliari began positively but have now gone three matches without victory, including consecutive defeats, and their latest league result was a 2-0 loss to Bologna. Roma are third and remain in contention near the top of the table, whereas Cagliari sit ninth and seek a response at the Olimpico. Paulo Dybala might return to Roma’s bench, while Manu Koné is unlikely to feature before the international break, according to Gian Piero Gasperini.

AS Roma generally use a 3-4-2-1, deployed in six matches, with the 3-4-1-2 and 3-5-2 also used once each. Cagliari’s main shape is a 4-3-2-1, used four times, followed by the 4-2-3-1 in two matches. Roma hold the stronger attacking profile, rated 69% to Cagliari’s 31%, and the defensive comparison also favours the hosts 62% to 38%. Roma score 2.4 goals per game across the season and concede 0.8, while Cagliari average 0.8 scored and 1.1 conceded. Recent meetings also lean Roma: they have won three of the last five, including a 2-0 victory in February 2026.

The model gives Roma a 45% chance of winning, with the draw also at 45% and Cagliari at 10%, producing a predicted Roma-or-draw outcome. Its broader comparison favours the hosts 70.8% to 29.3%, supported by advantages in form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head performance. Roma’s recent six-match sequence is W-W-D-D-W-D, compared with Cagliari’s W-W-W-D-L-L. The home side are unbeaten at the Olimpico this season, winning three and drawing one, while Cagliari have won three and lost one away. Roma have kept five clean sheets and failed to score once; Cagliari have three clean sheets and failed to score three times.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Roma 1.33, the draw 5.40 and Cagliari 9.83, corresponding to bookmaker implied probabilities of 75%, 19% and 10%. Roma therefore look too short against the model’s 45% home-win probability, while the draw offers the clearest value: 5.40 implies 19%, compared with the model’s 45%. Cagliari’s 9.83 is broadly aligned with the model’s 10%, so it provides little statistical margin. In the goals markets, Under 2.5 is 2.34 and Under 3.5 is 1.53; the model expects fewer than 2.5 Roma goals and fewer than 1.5 Cagliari goals, making the lower-scoring angles more attractive than Over 2.5 at 1.64.