AS Roma vs Genoa Preview, Prediction & Odds - Serie A

AS Roma face Genoa in Serie A on 17 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Roma at a 50% win probability. Roma remain unbeaten in six league matches, recording four wins and two draws, although consecutive draws against Inter and Como have slowed their start. Genoa have won once, drawn once and lost four times, with last weekend’s 2-1 victory over Fiorentina providing a timely lift. Roma sit third on 14 points, while Genoa are 17th on four. The fixture also brings former Roma coach and player Daniele De Rossi back to the Olimpico. Roma are responding to a 4-3 Champions League defeat by Real Madrid, with Donyell Malen suspended and Manu Kone injured.

Roma most often use a 3-4-2-1, deployed in five matches, while Genoa have used it three times and also varied between 3-4-1-2 and 3-5-2. The statistical gap is clear: Roma’s recent attack rates 59% against Genoa’s 29%, while their defence scores 82% compared with 47%. Roma average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last five; Genoa average 1.0 and 1.8. Across the five most recent meetings, Roma lead with three wins, one draw and one defeat. They won the last two meetings in Rome, both 3-1, although Genoa won the latest encounter 2-1 at home in March 2026.

The model’s headline probabilities are unusually balanced between a Roma win and a draw, at 50% each, with Genoa assigned 0%. Its predicted outcome is nevertheless Roma, while the goal expectation points to under 3.5 goals for the hosts and under 1.5 for Genoa. Roma’s recent form, 14 goals scored and only three conceded this season, supports the home case, as do four clean sheets and a 2-0-1 record at the Olimpico. Genoa’s profile is weaker: five goals scored, 11 conceded, no clean sheets and two away defeats from two. The model’s comparison also favours Roma in form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head measures.

Pinnacle’s 1.56 price makes Roma the bookmaker’s clear favourite, implying 64% compared with the model’s 50%, so the home win offers no obvious value despite being the model’s advised winner. The draw at 4.15 implies 24%, markedly below the model’s 50%, making it the strongest value angle if the model’s unusually even forecast is trusted. Genoa at 6.45 implies 16% against a model probability of 0%. Under 3.5 goals at 1.38 is consistent with the model’s goal expectation, while Over 2.5 at 1.87 and Under 2.5 at 1.99 require more caution. The tips therefore focus on the draw and a controlled total.

Draw @ 4.15 — the model gives the draw a 50% probability against Pinnacle’s 24% implied probability

Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.38 — the model expects fewer than 3.5 goals for both Roma and Genoa

Roma to win @ 1.56 — Roma are unbeaten at home this season with 2 wins and 1 draw