Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Preview, Prediction & Odds - Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen face SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Bayer Leverkusen at a 45% win probability. The fixture brings fourth-placed Leverkusen, on 10 points, against Freiburg, who lead the table with 13. Leverkusen’s league sequence is L-W-D-W-W and they followed a 4-3 victory at Mainz with a 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznan. Freiburg remain unbeaten after four wins and a draw, then beat FK Jablonec 3-2 in the Conference League. Three points could move Leverkusen closer to the summit, while Freiburg are defending first place. Martin Terrier is expected to miss out after suffering another injury.

Both teams most often use a 4-2-3-1, making the midfield battle and transitions particularly significant. Their attacking ratings are identical at 70%, while Leverkusen’s defensive rating is 60% compared with Freiburg’s stronger 80%. The season numbers underline that contrast: each side scores 2.8 goals per game, but Freiburg concede only 0.8 compared with Leverkusen’s 1.6. Leverkusen have still kept two clean sheets and won both home league matches. Recent head-to-head meetings favour the hosts, who have won three and drawn two of the last five. The latest finished 3-3 in March 2026, while Leverkusen won 2-0 at the BayArena in October 2025.

The model gives Leverkusen and the draw identical 45% probabilities, leaving Freiburg with 10%, so its predicted outcome is Leverkusen or draw rather than a straightforward home win. That recommendation reflects the hosts’ unbeaten home record, with two wins from two, and their perfect scoring record across five league games. Freiburg’s recent statistical profile is stronger, however: their last-five form is 87% against Leverkusen’s 67%, with an 80% defensive rating and only four goals conceded. The comparison also gives Freiburg the edge in form, 57% to 43%, although Leverkusen lead the head-to-head and goals components. The goals expectation is under 3.5 for both teams.

Pinnacle’s 1.65 price makes Leverkusen a 61% implied chance, well above the model’s 45%, so the home win offers limited value. The draw at 4.59 carries a 22% implied probability against the model’s 45%, making it the clearest value angle despite Freiburg’s excellent start. Freiburg at 4.86 is priced around 21%, also higher than the model’s 10% chance, so the away win is difficult to support. In the totals market, Under 3.5 is available at 1.78 and fits the model’s under-3.5 expectation for both sides, while Over 3.5 at 2.12 conflicts with that projection. The tips therefore centre on the draw and a controlled total.

Draw @ 4.59 — the model gives the draw a 45% probability, compared with Pinnacle’s 22% implied figure. Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.78 — the model’s goals expectation is below 3.5 for both Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg. Bayer Leverkusen @ 1.65 — Leverkusen have won both home league matches, although the model’s 45% win probability makes the price short.