Bologna vs Inter Preview, Prediction & Odds - Serie A

Bologna face Inter in Serie A (Italy), Regular Season - 7, on Saturday 17 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Inter at a 45% win probability. Bologna have taken one win, two draws and three defeats, although a 2-1 victory at Lecce followed a 1-1 draw with Torino under Raffaele Palladino. Inter remain unbeaten after five wins and a draw, including a 3-0 success over Parma, but suffered a 4-3 Champions League defeat to Club Brugge in midweek. Bologna are seeking distance from the relegation zone, while Inter are challenging at the top. According to FC Inter News, Bologna are without Riccardo Orsolini and Holm, while Lautaro Martinez and Benjamin Pavard are injured for Inter.

Bologna most often use a 4-2-3-1, whereas Inter’s regular shape is a 3-5-2, giving the visitors an extra central presence and a more established attacking structure. The statistical contrast is substantial: Inter’s last-five attack rating is 100% against Bologna’s 36%, with the champions scoring 2.8 goals per game compared with Bologna’s 1.0. Bologna hold the better recent defensive rating, 57% to 50%, but have kept no clean sheets this season, while Inter have recorded two. Recent meetings have been evenly balanced overall: Bologna won once, Inter won once and three ended level. The latest was a 3-3 draw in May 2026, after Inter won 3-1 in January.

Inter are given a 45% chance of winning, with the draw also rated at 45% and Bologna at 10%; the predicted outcome is therefore an Inter victory despite the narrow margin over a stalemate. The goals projection points towards Bologna staying below 1.5 and Inter below 3.5, rather than an unrestricted high-scoring contest. Inter’s form rating is 72% against Bologna’s 28%, while the attack comparison is 74% to 26% and the Poisson assessment is 70% to 30%. Bologna average only 0.8 goals this season and have failed to score three times. Inter average 3.0, have scored in every match and have lost none of their six fixtures.

Pinnacle makes Inter a strong favourite at 1.57, implying 64%, well above the model’s 45%, so the away win offers limited value at that price. The draw is 4.12, implying 24%, while the model assigns it 45%, making the stalemate the clearest value angle despite Inter’s stronger season. Bologna are 6.27, implying 16%, also above their 10% model probability. In the goals markets, Under 3.5 is 1.51 and Over 2.5 is 1.68; the model’s team-goal ceilings support caution, although Inter’s 3.0 goals per game and the recent 3-3 meeting keep both totals relevant. The tips therefore favour the draw and a controlled scoreline.