Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander Preview, Prediction & Odds - La Liga

Celta Vigo face Racing Santander in La Liga on 19 September 2026, with the prediction model favouring Celta Vigo and assigning them a 45% win probability. Celta have yet to win after six league matches, drawing four and losing two, while Racing have two victories, one draw and three defeats. The hosts sit 16th with four points and Racing are 10th with seven, according to Sportskeeda and Yahoo Sports. Celta’s three-match unbeaten league sequence ended with a 1-0 Europa League defeat by Omonia Nicosia, while Racing arrive after a 7-2 loss at Barcelona. The match offers Celta a chance to end their poor start and Racing an opportunity to respond away from home.

Celta Vigo most often use a 3-4-3, while Racing Santander primarily deploy a 4-2-3-1, with a 4-1-3-2 used once. Their contrasting profiles are clear: Racing average 1.8 goals per game this season, compared with Celta’s 0.5, but concede 2.7 per match against the hosts’ 1.0. Celta’s last-five attack rating is only 16%, although their defensive rating is 68%; Racing’s corresponding figures are 47% and 26%. Racing have kept no clean sheets, whereas Celta have two. The previous meeting came in the Copa del Rey on 5 January 2025, when Celta Vigo won 3-2 at Racing Santander.

The model gives Celta Vigo a 45% chance of winning, a 45% chance of a draw and Racing Santander a 10% chance of victory, making the double-chance outcome the central prediction. It expects fewer than 2.5 goals from each side. Celta’s recent six-match sequence is D-L-L-D-D-D, and their last five produced only 0.6 goals per game, supporting a controlled scoring outlook. Racing have been more productive at 1.8 goals per match across their last five, but their 2.8 conceded average exposes considerable defensive risk. Their away record is also a major concern: three matches, three defeats and no points. Celta’s home record is weaker, with one draw and two losses.

Pinnacle prices Celta Vigo at 1.81, the draw at 3.85 and Racing Santander at 4.58. Those figures imply 55%, 26% and 22% respectively, including the bookmaker’s margin, whereas the model gives 45%, 45% and 10%. The draw therefore offers the clearest potential value at 3.85, while the home price is shorter than Celta’s estimated winning chance. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.16, contrasting with 1.76 for the over; the model’s low goal expectation and Celta’s five-game run of matches below 2.5 goals make the under the more attractive totals angle. These selections favour a draw and a low-scoring contest rather than a straightforward home win.