Crystal Palace return to league action with one eye on their European final, and that distraction is a major factor here. Oliver Glasner may rotate after the midweek win over Shakhtar, while Eddie Nketiah, Evann Guessand and Cheick Doucoure remain out. Palace have been solid at Selhurst Park, but their attacking output has been modest. Everton arrive with plenty at stake in the top-eight race, though their recent habit of conceding late goals keeps them vulnerable.
The numbers point to a tight contest, but Everton are still the likelier side to avoid defeat. Our model gives Palace just 10% to win, with the draw and Everton each rated at 45%, which supports the double chance on draw or Everton. Palace's home defensive record is respectable, yet Everton's stronger attacking profile and Palace's expected rotation tilt the balance slightly. A low-scoring game remains possible, but the visitor edge comes from motivation and matchup history.
Pinnacle price Everton at 2.40, the draw at 3.39 and Palace at 3.11, which makes the away side the shortest outright selection. Under 2.5 goals is 1.88, while Over 2.5 is 2.01, so the market expects a fairly even goals line. The best value looks to be Everton or draw rather than forcing a straight away win, especially given Palace's European focus. If backing goals, Over 1.5 at 1.31 is safer than stretching to a higher line.
ベッティングのヒント
- Double chance: draw or Everton — Palace are likely to rotate and Everton are rated 45% to win
- Under 2.5 Goals — Palace average 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Everton average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded per game