Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Preview, Prediction & Odds - Premier League

Crystal Palace face Newcastle in the Premier League on Sunday 25 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Crystal Palace at a 35% win probability. The hosts have taken two wins, one draw and four defeats from seven league matches, while Newcastle have two wins, two draws and three losses. Palace’s latest sequence is L-W-L-D-W-L, including a heavy 5-0 defeat at Brighton, although they drew 2-2 with Besiktas in the Europa League on Thursday. Newcastle have lost three of their last four league games and most recently fell 1-0 at home to Aston Villa. Both clubs need points to avoid being dragged closer to the relegation battle, while Pierre Sage and Matthias Jaissle face mounting scrutiny.

Crystal Palace most frequently use a 3-4-2-1, while Newcastle have started all seven league games in a 4-2-3-1. Palace hold the stronger recent attacking profile, rated at 80% over their last five matches compared with Newcastle’s 60%, although both defences are rated at 0% in that period. The hosts average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across those five games; Newcastle average 1.2 for and 2.4 against. The last five meetings are evenly split overall, with two wins apiece and one draw. Palace won the latest encounter 2-1 at Selhurst Park in April 2026, after Newcastle had won 2-0 and 5-0 in the two previous meetings.

The model gives Palace a 35% chance of winning, a 35% chance of a draw and Newcastle a 30% chance of victory, making a home win or stalemate the predicted outcome. Its overall comparison leans narrowly towards Palace, 52.3% to 47.7%, supported by a 64%-36% form advantage and a 55%-45% Poisson split. Newcastle have scored slightly more this season, 10 goals to Palace’s nine, but Palace’s defensive record is worse at 17 conceded against Newcastle’s 14. Neither side has kept more than one clean sheet, while Palace have failed to score three times compared with Newcastle’s once. Both teams have won once away or at home respectively.

Pinnacle’s 2.92 price on a Palace win implies 34%, almost identical to the model’s 35%, so the home result offers only a narrow value margin. The draw at 3.64 implies 27%, compared with the model’s 35%, making it the clearest 1X2 value angle despite the uncertain contest. Newcastle are 2.40, implying 42%, well above their 30% model probability. The goals market favours restraint at the higher line: Under 3.5 is 1.62, while the model expects each team to stay below 3.5 goals and total goals to exceed 1.5. The recommended approach therefore favours Palace or draw angles, with the draw and Under 3.5 carrying the stronger price-based case.