Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante Preview, Prediction & Odds - La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna face Levante in La Liga on 16 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Deportivo La Coruna at a 35% win probability. The hosts have taken two wins, four draws and two defeats from eight matches and sit eighth with 10 points, although they are without a victory in their last four league games after losing 3-2 at Real Sociedad. Levante are 17th on six points, with one win, three draws and three defeats from seven matches, and have also gone four games without winning. Their 3-3 draw with Sevilla offered attacking encouragement. According to Football Whispers, Deportivo remain without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Marc Casado and Zakaria Eddahchouri.

Deportivo most often use a 4-4-2, employed in four matches, while their alternatives are 4-2-3-1 in three and 4-1-3-2 in one. Levante’s leading shape is 4-1-4-1, used three times, followed by 4-4-2 twice and 4-2-3-1 once. The recent numbers suggest contrasting profiles: Deportivo’s last-five attack rating is 32% but their defensive rating is 64%, whereas Levante register 50% for attack and 45% for defence. Levante’s 2.2 goals per game across their last five also exceed Deportivo’s 1.4. Recent meetings lean towards the visitors: Levante won 2-1 at Riazor in January 2025 and 2-1 at home in October 2024, while the five-match record is two Levante wins, two draws and one Deportivo victory.

The model gives Deportivo La Coruna a 35% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Levante 30%, producing a predicted home win-or-draw outcome. Its overall comparison edges Deportivo 53.2% to 46.8%, despite Levante holding advantages in attack, 61% to 39%, goals, 53% to 47%, and recent head-to-head strength, 62% to 38%. Defensive comparison favours Deportivo 60% to 40%, while the Poisson component strongly supports the hosts at 85% to 15%. The goal expectation is under 2.5 for both teams. Deportivo’s home record is one win, two draws and one defeat, while Levante are still without an away win after two draws and two losses.

Pinnacle make Deportivo La Coruna 2.10 favourites, implying 48% compared with the model’s 35%, so the home price offers no obvious value. The draw at 3.54 carries a 28% implied probability against the model’s 35%, making it the clearest value angle among the match-result prices. Levante are 3.62, implying 28% against a 30% model probability, although that small edge conflicts with the broader home-or-draw prediction. Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.94 and fits the model’s under-2.5 expectation for both sides, while Over 2.5 is also 1.94. The betting focus therefore rests on the draw and a restrained goals line rather than the home win.