Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla - La Liga Preview

Deportivo La Coruna welcome Sevilla to Estadio de Riazor with both sides in the early-season upper tier. Deportivo remain unbeaten after five matches, recording two wins and three draws, including a 1-1 draw at Getafe last weekend after beating Villarreal 3-2. Sevilla have won three, drawn one and lost one, returning to winning ways with a 1-0 victory over Valencia after a draw with Espanyol. Sports Mole places Deportivo sixth on nine points and Sevilla fifth on 10. The hosts are defending their unbeaten start, while Sevilla are seeking another positive result in a tight race near the top four. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in five successive league games, according to Football Whispers. The New York Times reports Ruben Vargas and Arouna Sangante are out for Sevilla.

Both teams most often use a 4-2-3-1, although Deportivo La Coruna also used 4-4-2 twice and 4-1-3-2 once, while Sevilla used 4-3-3 in their other match. Deportivo hold the stronger attacking comparison, 53% to 47%, and average 1.8 goals per game compared with Sevilla’s 1.6. Their defensive ratings are identical at 50% in the comparison, with both conceding 1.2 per match. Deportivo have kept no clean sheets but have scored in every game; Sevilla have one clean sheet and have also failed to score in none. The historical edge is clearly Sevilla’s: the last five meetings brought three Sevilla wins and two draws, including a 0-0 at Riazor in April 2018.

The prediction model makes this a highly draw-oriented contest, giving Deportivo La Coruna a 10% win probability, with 45% for the draw and 45% for a Sevilla victory. Its predicted outcome is Sevilla or draw, while the goals expectation points towards under 2.5. Form slightly favours Sevilla, 53% to 47%, and the Poisson assessment also leans their way, 55% to 45%. Deportivo’s recent five-match figures are solid at 60% form, with 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Sevilla show 67% form, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2. Both away records are unbeaten after two matches, while Deportivo are unbeaten at home after two.

Pinnacle prices Deportivo La Coruna at 2.65, the draw at 3.03 and Sevilla at 3.13. Those prices imply 38%, 33% and 32% respectively, compared with the model’s 10%, 45% and 45%. That creates the clearest value on the draw or Sevilla, particularly the draw at 3.03, although the away price also remains attractive against a 45% model probability. In the goals market, Under 2.5 is 1.68, implying roughly 60%, and fits the model’s under-2.5 expectation, despite offering a smaller statistical edge than the result markets. The recommended angles therefore focus on the draw, Sevilla and a restrained total.

Draw @ 3.03 — the model gives the draw a 45% probability against Pinnacle’s 33% implied probability.

Sevilla @ 3.13 — Sevilla have a 45% model win probability, compared with a 32% implied probability.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.68 — the model expects fewer than 2.5 goals and both teams concede 1.2 per game.