Espanyol welcome Sevilla to the RCDE Stadium with both sides seeking a response after losing last time out. Espanyol began the campaign with a 3-0 win over Levante but then suffered consecutive 2-1 defeats against Real Madrid and Real Sociedad, leaving a 1-2 record after three matches. Sevilla opened with victories over Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao before a 3-1 home loss to Atlético Madrid, and sit at 2-1. The hosts therefore aim to halt a three-match slide, while Sevilla look to resume their early momentum. According to Football Whispers, Kike García remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and Javi Puado is recovering from a cruciate ligament problem. Sevilla are also without Rubén Vargas and Marcão, according to SSBCrack News.
Both teams most often use a 4-2-3-1, although Espanyol also used a 4-4-2 once in their opening three matches. Sevilla’s attacking indicators are stronger: their last-five attack rating is 43% against Espanyol’s 36%, while they score 2.0 goals per game compared with the hosts’ 1.7. Espanyol hold the defensive edge in the same comparison, 71% to 64%, and concede 1.3 per match against Sevilla’s 1.7. The recent head-to-head record favours Sevilla, who have won three of the last five meetings, with one draw and one Espanyol victory. The latest meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended Sevilla 2-1 Espanyol, following Espanyol’s 2-1 home win in November 2025.
The prediction model gives Espanyol a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and Sevilla win both rated at 45%. That produces a predicted outcome of Sevilla or draw and matches the model advice of double chance on those results. Its broader comparison also leans to Sevilla, 61.2% overall against Espanyol’s 38.8%, with the Poisson element especially favourable to the visitors at 70%. Form stands at 67% for Sevilla versus 33% for Espanyol, while the goals comparison is 60%-40%. Espanyol have kept one clean sheet and are 1-1 at home; Sevilla have no clean sheets but are 1-0 away, adding weight to the visitors’ stronger result expectation.
Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices are 2.26 for Espanyol, 3.32 for the draw and 3.46 for Sevilla. The bookmaker’s implied probabilities are 44%, 30% and 29% respectively, compared with the model’s 10%, 45% and 45%, so the clearest value is on Sevilla or the draw rather than the short home price. Since double chance is not among the quoted markets, the away win and draw can be backed separately at 3.46 and 3.32, though that carries more variance than the model’s preferred protection. Under 2.5 goals is 1.75, broadly suited to the model’s low-goal expectation and both teams’ defensive indicators.
Sevilla to win @ 3.46 — the model gives the visitors a 45% win probability against Pinnacle’s 29% implied figure.
Draw @ 3.32 — the model rates a stalemate at 45%, versus a 30% bookmaker implication.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 — the model’s goal lines are under 2.5 for Espanyol and under 3.5 for Sevilla.
Betting Tips
- Sevilla to win @ 3.46 — the model gives the visitors a 45% win probability against Pinnacle’s 29% implied figure.
- Draw @ 3.32 — the model rates a stalemate at 45%, versus a 30% bookmaker implication.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 — the model’s goal lines are under 2.5 for Espanyol and under 3.5 for Sevilla.