Everton vs Ipswich Preview, Prediction & Odds - Premier League

Everton face Ipswich in the Premier League on 19 September 2026, with the prediction model favouring Everton at a 45% win probability and flagging a win-or-draw outcome. Everton are unbeaten after four league matches, recording one win and three draws, while Ipswich have taken two wins and two defeats. The teams are level on six points, with Everton ninth and Ipswich 10th. Everton’s 1-0 League Cup win over Wolves maintained their unbeaten start across competitions, whereas Ipswich exited after a 4-2 defeat by Arsenal. Victory would move Everton towards the early top-four picture, while Ipswich are seeking a stronger away performance after an inconsistent opening run.

Both teams most frequently use 4-2-3-1, although Everton also deployed 4-1-4-1 once in their opening four matches. Everton’s recent attacking rating is 38%, below Ipswich’s 54%, and the visitors average 1.8 goals per game compared with Everton’s 1.3. The defensive contrast is sharper: Everton’s defensive rating is 77%, with 0.8 goals conceded per game, while Ipswich’s is 23% and their concession rate is 2.5. Everton have kept two clean sheets; Ipswich have kept none. Recent meetings favour Everton, who beat Ipswich 2-0 in October 2024 before a 2-2 draw in May 2025, leaving one win and one draw from two encounters.

The model gives Everton a 45% chance of winning, the draw 45%, and Ipswich 10%, producing a predicted Everton win-or-draw result. Its overall comparison favours Everton 64.7% to 35.3%, supported particularly by the defensive split, the Poisson assessment of 72% to 28%, and the head-to-head comparison of 80% to 20%. The goals projection points towards more than 1.5 in total, while keeping each side below 3.5 for Everton and below 2.5 for Ipswich. Everton’s home record is one win and one draw from two matches, whereas Ipswich have won once and lost once away. Everton’s season figures also include five goals scored, three conceded and two clean sheets.

Pinnacle makes Everton 1.81 favourites, equivalent to a 55% implied probability, considerably above the model’s 45%; the home price therefore offers no clear value. The draw is 3.83 at a 26% bookmaker probability against the model’s 45%, making it the strongest 1X2 value angle despite the model’s joint preference for Everton or draw. Ipswich are 4.55, with a 22% implied probability compared with only 10% from the model. In the goals markets, Over 2.5 is 1.79 and Under 2.5 is 2.12, while Under 3.5 is 1.44. The model’s restrained team-goal expectations make the latter the more logical support for the draw position.