Fiorentina vs Como Preview, Prediction & Odds - Serie A

Fiorentina face Como in Serie A on Sunday 18 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Como at a 45% win probability. Fiorentina have lost four of six league matches and sit 19th with four points, while Como have three wins, two draws and one defeat and occupy seventh on 11 points. The hosts’ latest six-match sequence is L-L-L-W-D-L, ending with a 2-1 defeat at Genoa, whereas Como’s D-W-W-W-L-D run includes a 0-0 draw with Roma. Fiorentina need points to escape the relegation zone, while Como seek to maintain their strong start amid European commitments. Football Whispers reports Fabiano Parisi is a long-term absentee, while Goal says Moise Kean misses out through injury. Assane Diao is also out for two to three weeks, according to Football Italia.

Fiorentina have used several systems, led by 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 with two appearances each, plus one match in a 4-3-2-1. Como have shown greater consistency through a 4-2-3-1 used five times, with 4-1-4-1 appearing once. The contrast is clearest in the defensive numbers: Fiorentina concede 2.3 goals per league game, have kept no clean sheets and have allowed 14 goals, while Como concede 1.0 per game and have one clean sheet. Como also hold the stronger recent attack, averaging 1.6 goals across their last five compared with Fiorentina’s 1.4. Recent meetings lean towards the visitors, with Como winning three of the last five, including two of the previous three in Florence.

The model gives Fiorentina only a 10% chance of victory, against 45% for a draw and 45% for a Como win, making the away side the predicted outcome despite the draw carrying equal probability. Its overall comparison rates Como 65.2% to Fiorentina’s 34.8%, supported by advantages in form, defence, goals and the Poisson assessment. Como’s recent form score is 71% against 29%, while the defensive comparison is 67% to 33%. The goal expectation points towards Fiorentina scoring under 1.5 and Como under 3.5. That aligns with Como’s 1.0 conceded per game and stronger away record of two wins, one draw and one defeat, compared with Fiorentina’s home record of no wins, one draw and two losses.

Pinnacle makes Como the shortest-priced winner at 2.08, implying 48% after margin, slightly above the model’s 45%, so the away price offers limited value despite the favourable statistical profile. Fiorentina are 3.56, implying 28% against only 10% in the model, while the draw is 3.75, implying 27% against the model’s 45%; that gap makes the stalemate the clearest value angle. The goals market also favours restraint at 1.55 for Under 3.5, compared with 2.56 for Over 3.5. Fiorentina’s 2.3 goals conceded per match can create volatility, but the model’s low team-goal expectations and Como’s defensive record support Under 3.5 alongside the draw tip.