Lask Linz vs Liverpool Preview, Prediction & Odds - UEFA Champions League

LASK Linz face Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 2 on 14 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Liverpool at a 45% win probability. The hosts have alternated results across their last three matches, while Liverpool began their campaign with a victory. LASK have one win and two defeats from three season games, including a 1-0 Champions League loss to AEK Athens according to recent previews, and need their first European points. Liverpool are seeking another positive result after opening with a 2-1 comeback against Atletico Madrid, although reports highlight a 3-0 weekend defeat by Manchester City. George Bello is reported out for LASK, while Liverpool have several injury doubts and absences noted by Sports Mole.

LASK’s preferred shape is a back-three system, using 3-5-2 twice and 3-1-4-2 once, while Liverpool’s most-used formation is 4-2-3-1. The statistical comparison gives LASK the stronger attacking rating, 71% to 29%, but Liverpool hold a considerable defensive advantage, 83% to 17%. That contrast places emphasis on whether LASK’s wing-backs can turn their structure into sustained pressure without exposing space behind them. LASK average 1.7 goals scored and conceded per game, whereas Liverpool average 2.0 for and 1.0 against. The recent head-to-head record is emphatic: Liverpool won 3-1 in Linz in September 2023 and 4-0 at home in November, giving them two wins from two.

The model makes Liverpool’s outright win probability 45%, with the draw also at 45% and LASK on 10%, producing a predicted Liverpool win-or-draw outcome. Its overall comparison favours Liverpool 62.5% to 37.8%, despite an even form score of 50% each. The clearest statistical separation comes in goals, where Liverpool rate 88% against LASK’s 13%, and defence, where the figures are 83% and 17%. LASK have scored five and conceded five in three matches, have no clean sheets and failed to score twice. Liverpool have scored twice and conceded once, have not failed to score, and the model expects under 2.5 goals for each side.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices are 7.46 for LASK, 5.36 for the draw and 1.39 for Liverpool, implying 13%, 19% and 72% respectively after margin. The model therefore sees substantial value in the draw at 45% against 19%, while Liverpool’s 45% chance is far below the bookmaker’s 72%, making the short away price difficult to support on these figures. In the goals markets, Over 2.5 is 1.49 and Under 2.5 is 2.66, while Over 3.5 is 2.26 and Under 3.5 is 1.68. The model’s low team-goal expectation and Soccer News’ under-3.5 verdict support a cautious total-goals approach alongside the draw.

Draw @ 5.36 — the model assigns the draw a 45% probability, versus Pinnacle’s 19% implied figure.

Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.68 — the model expects under 2.5 goals for both teams and Liverpool average 1.0 conceded per game.

Liverpool @ 1.39 — Liverpool are unbeaten in the model’s predicted outcome and won both previous meetings, although the price implies 72% against a 45% win probability.