Leeds vs Crystal Palace Preview, Prediction & Odds - Premier League

Leeds face Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Sunday 20 September 2026, with the prediction model favouring Leeds at a 45% home-win probability. Leeds are unbeaten after four league matches, recording two wins and two draws, and their latest result was a 4-1 home victory over Newcastle United. Crystal Palace have won once and lost three times, although they enter after a 4-0 Europa League win over Lech Poznan. The contrasting league starts leave Leeds chasing further momentum at Elland Road, while Palace need to turn their European lift into domestic points. Football Whispers reports that Palace are without Dean Henderson and Axel Disasi, while Football365 says Leeds miss Harry Wilson, Joe Rodon and Mateo Joseph.

Both teams most often use a three-at-the-back structure, but Leeds divide their four matches between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, whereas Palace have used 3-4-2-1 in all four. Leeds hold the stronger defensive profile, with an 81% recent defensive rating against Palace’s 31%, while their attacking figures are 44% and 38% respectively. Palace’s recent attack is marginally behind Leeds at 38%, despite averaging 1.5 goals per game compared with Leeds’ 1.8. The head-to-head record is balanced across the five latest meetings: Leeds won once, Palace won twice and there were two draws. The latest finished 0-0 in March 2026, after Leeds won 4-1 at Elland Road in December 2025.

The model gives Leeds a 45% chance of winning, the draw 45%, and Crystal Palace 10%, making Leeds or draw the predicted outcome. Its overall comparison favours Leeds 60.5% to 39.5%, supported by advantages in form, defence and the Poisson assessment, despite Palace holding the head-to-head edge at 62% to 38%. Leeds have scored 1.8 goals per game and conceded 0.8, with one clean sheet and no match without scoring. Palace average 1.5 scored and 2.8 conceded, have kept no clean sheets and failed to score once. Leeds are also unbeaten at home this season, with one win and one draw, while Palace’s away record is one win and one defeat.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Leeds 1.71, the draw 4.02 and Crystal Palace 4.97, corresponding to the bookmaker’s implied probabilities of 58%, 25% and 20%. The model is less enthusiastic about a home win at 45%, so Leeds offer limited value at that price, while the draw stands out because its 45% model probability is well above the bookmaker’s 25%. Palace’s 10% model chance is below the 20% implied figure. In the goals markets, Under 3.5 is priced at 1.49, while Over 2.5 is 1.68; the model’s under-3.5 Leeds and under-2.5 Palace expectations support a restrained scoring angle alongside the draw tip.