Marcus Webb's Prediction for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Anfield hosts a meeting with rather more uncertainty than the 1.48 home price suggests. Liverpool began the Premier League with a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, while Nottingham Forest lost 0-1 to Leeds and then 0-2 to Leeds in the Carabao Cup, according to TNT Sports and the wider match reports. Both clubs are starting new eras: Andoni Iraola is taking charge of Liverpool at Anfield for the first time, while Oliver Glasner is seeking to arrest a run of defeats at Forest. The prediction model gives Liverpool only a 35% chance of winning, with the draw also at 35% and Forest at 30%. That is an unusually compressed forecast for a heavily priced favourite. The market implies 68% for Liverpool, 21% for the draw and 16% for Forest. My initial lean is Liverpool, but it is a cautious one; the numbers describe a likely low-scoring contest, not a procession.

Liverpool’s opening result was a draw, and their five-match indicators show 33% form, 10% attack and 90% defence, with 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. The season record is P1 W0 D1 L0, while the home record is still P0 W0 D0 L0 because this is their first league fixture at Anfield. They have scored twice, conceded twice, kept no clean sheet and have not failed to score. The 4-2-3-1 was used in their one recorded match, giving a sensible starting point for assessing the shape, even if one game is scarcely a tactical constitution. Liverpool’s case rests on creating enough pressure to exploit Forest’s blunt attack: TNT Sports reported 27 shots and an xG of 2.73 against Newcastle. Khel Now also identified Cody Gakpo as a constant threat in that match. Better defensive organisation would make that attacking volume count.

Forest arrive with a 0% form rating from their last five and an attack rating of 0%, although their defensive figure is a healthier 95%. Their league record is P1 W0 D0 L1, with no away fixture yet recorded, so claims about their travelling strength would be statistical fiction dressed in a scarf. Forest have scored 0.0 goals per game, conceded 1.0, kept no clean sheet and failed to score once. Their most-used formation is the 3-4-2-1, a structure that can protect the centre but requires the wing-backs and attacking support to produce sufficient outlets. The immediate reason they can win is defensive rather than creative: Liverpool have conceded 2.0 per game across their five-match indicators, and the model’s comparison gives Forest the stronger defensive share, 67% to Liverpool’s 33%. Yet the attacking baseline is stark. Forest have not scored in either competitive match this season, according to TNT Sports, and another blank would leave little margin for error.

The recent head-to-head record refuses to provide a comfortable answer. Liverpool won 1-0 at Forest on 22 February 2026, but Forest won 3-0 at Anfield on 22 November 2025; the other three meetings were a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 Forest win and a 1-0 Liverpool win. Across those five matches, each side has two victories and there has been one draw. That is not dominance; it is a small historical coin toss with unusually modest totals. Tactically, Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1 should offer four attacking lanes against Forest’s 3-4-2-1, but the key question is whether the home side can prevent transitions when its full-backs advance. Forest’s defensive rating is 95%, while Liverpool’s attack rating is only 10% across the recent-form indicators. Conversely, Liverpool’s defensive rating is 90% and Forest’s attack rating is 0%. The decisive zone is therefore the first goal: it should force Forest to open a game they would prefer to keep narrow.

I am backing Liverpool, but with low confidence. The model’s 35% home probability is below the 40% threshold, and the market’s 1.48 price implies 68%, a gap too large to ignore. I would not treat Liverpool at 1.48 as attractive value; the model makes the match far closer than Pinnacle does. Under 2.5 goals at 2.60 is the more interesting listed market, given the model’s under-2.5 expectation and Forest’s 0.0 goals per game, though a two-goal forecast is hardly a mathematical commandment. A draw is plainly realistic at 35%, equal to Liverpool’s modelled win chance, while Forest remain live if Liverpool’s defensive disorder returns. My call is a narrow Liverpool win, probably by one goal. The biggest risk is that Forest’s 95% defensive rating frustrates Liverpool, turning the match into the 0-0 or 1-1 that the probability split very much permits.