Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham - Premier League Preview

Nottingham Forest and Tottenham arrive at the City Ground still seeking their first league victory of the campaign. Forest’s opening two results were a 1-0 home defeat by Leeds United and a 2-2 draw at Liverpool, while Tottenham lost 3-0 at Brentford before a 2-0 home reverse against Newcastle United. The point at Anfield gives Forest a platform, but Oliver Glasner is still waiting for his first competitive win in charge. Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham have yet to score and face pressure to avoid a third straight defeat. According to Yahoo Sports Canada, Nicolo Savona remains unavailable, while Ibrahim Sangare has recovered and Daniel Munoz is fit to play.

Nottingham Forest most often use a 3-4-2-1, contrasting with Tottenham’s regular 4-2-3-1. Forest’s last-five profile is stronger in every key attacking measure: 11% attack versus Tottenham’s 0%, and 83% defensive strength against 72%. The underlying scoring figures tell the same story, with Forest averaging 1.0 goal per game and Tottenham 0.0, while Spurs concede 2.5 per match compared with Forest’s 1.5. Neither side has kept a clean sheet, but Tottenham have failed to score in both fixtures. The recent head-to-head record is emphatic: Forest have won four of the last five meetings, including 3-0 victories in March 2026 and December 2025.

The prediction model makes Nottingham Forest the stronger side overall, assigning a 50% home-win probability, 50% for the draw and 0% to Tottenham. Its flagged outcome is therefore Forest or draw, although the available prices do not include that double-chance market. Forest’s 71% goals comparison and 63% defensive rating both favour the hosts, while Tottenham register 29% and 38% respectively. Forest have scored twice this season and conceded three, whereas Tottenham have scored none and conceded five. The model’s goals expectation is shown as home -1.5, which corresponds to an under-1.5 reading in the stated notation, reinforcing the possibility of a controlled, low-scoring contest.

Pinnacle offer Nottingham Forest at 2.46, equivalent to a 41% implied chance, against the model’s 50%, so the home win carries the clearest 1X2 value. The draw is 3.49, implying 29%, and also stands above the model’s 50% assessment, making it an alternative value angle rather than a result to dismiss. Tottenham are 2.93, or 34% implied, despite a model probability of 0%. In the goals markets, Under 1.5 is priced at 3.96 and Under 3.5 at 1.42; the former aligns more closely with the model’s under-1.5 expectation, while Forest’s low scoring average also supports caution.

Home win @ 2.46 — Nottingham Forest have a 50% model win probability versus Pinnacle’s 41% implied figure. Draw @ 3.49 — the model gives the draw a 50% probability against a 29% implied chance. Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.96 — the model’s goals expectation is under 1.5 and Tottenham average 0.0 goals per game.