Osasuna vs Getafe - La Liga Preview

Osasuna take four points from their opening two La Liga matches, drawing 0-0 with Levante before coming from behind to beat Celta Vigo 2-1. That keeps them unbeaten under Luis Miguel Ramis and gives Monday’s fixture added importance: a victory would move them to seven points from three games, a landmark noted by EuroFotbal. Getafe have three points after losing 0-3 at Alavés and beating Racing Santander 1-0, while their 4-3 aggregate Conference League qualification win over Partizan has added to a busy start. Fatigue is a concern for José Bordalás, who reportedly says Getafe’s narrow squad limits rotation. Valentin Rosier’s hamstring status remains questionable, according to Football Whispers.

Osasuna’s most-used shapes are 5-4-1 and 4-4-2, while Getafe have used 3-5-2 in both matches, giving the visitors a more consistent structural reference. The statistical comparison favours Osasuna strongly in attack, 67% to 33%, and defence, 75% to 25%; their last-five figures also show 1.0 goal scored and only 0.5 conceded per game. Getafe average 0.5 goals for and 1.5 against, pointing towards a more limited attacking threat and less reliable defensive base. Recent meetings are balanced: Osasuna have won two of the last five, Getafe two and one ended level. The latest was Getafe’s 1-0 victory on 23 May 2026.

The prediction model gives Osasuna a 45% chance of winning and the draw the same probability, leaving Getafe with only 10%. Its forecast therefore favours Osasuna or a draw, with total goals expected to stay below 3.5 and both teams projected below 1.5 goals. The numbers fit the early-season profiles: Osasuna have conceded once in two games, kept one clean sheet and remain unbeaten, although their home record is one draw from one match. Getafe have also kept one clean sheet, but have conceded three times, failed to score once and lost their only away fixture. Overall comparison ratings lean Osasuna 59.8% to 40.2%.

Pinnacle makes Osasuna 2.27, the draw 2.84 and Getafe 4.13, with implied probabilities of 44%, 35% and 24% respectively. Osasuna’s 45% model probability offers only a narrow edge over the 44% home estimate, whereas the draw stands out more clearly: 45% against 35%, provided the 2.84 price is accepted. Getafe appear overpriced only in the wrong direction, with a 10% model chance against a 24% implied figure. Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.36, implying 74%, so the short price reflects the low-scoring forecast but leaves less obvious value than the draw. The tips therefore prioritise the draw and a cautious home position.

Draw @ 2.84 — the model gives the stalemate a 45% probability against Pinnacle’s 35% implied figure Osasuna to win @ 2.27 — Osasuna’s 45% model probability narrowly exceeds the bookmaker’s 44% implied estimate Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.36 — the model expects fewer than 3.5 goals and Getafe average only 0.5 per game