Parma vs Udinese Preview, Prediction & Odds - Serie A

Parma face Udinese in Serie A on 28 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Udinese at a 45% win probability. This is a meeting between two sides in the lower reaches after eight matches, with both clubs holding one win, one draw and six defeats. Parma have lost their last three, including a 2-1 defeat by Lazio, while Udinese arrive on a six-match losing run. The stakes are significant: Sports Mole reports that Parma are second-bottom and Udinese are in danger of slipping towards the relegation zone. Alberto Gilardino has suffered three defeats since taking charge, while Kosta Runjaic is under pressure. Football Whispers reports confirmed absences for Parma including Pontus Almqvist and Nesta Elphege, while Udinese are without David Alaba, Vakoun Bayo and Idrissa Gueye.

Both teams most often use a 3-4-2-1, although Parma have also used 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 this season. Their recent attacking output is identical at 0.8 goals per game across the last five, but Parma’s defence has conceded 2.2 per match compared with Udinese’s 2.6. The ratings give Parma a slight defensive advantage, 31% to 19%, while the attack scores are level at 25%. Parma have scored 0.6 per game overall and Udinese 1.1, yet both have failed to score regularly. Udinese lead the recent head-to-head record, winning three of the last five. Parma won the latest meeting 1-0 in April 2026, while Udinese won 2-0 in November 2025.

The model gives Parma only a 10% chance of victory, compared with 45% for the draw and 45% for an Udinese win, producing a predicted outcome of draw or Udinese. Its broader comparison also leans towards the visitors, with Udinese ahead on overall strength at 58.4% to 41.6%, and on the Poisson measure at 63% to 37%. The goals expectation is under 2.5 for both teams. Parma’s season figures support caution: five goals scored, 15 conceded, no clean sheets and four scoreless matches. Udinese have also kept no clean sheets, scoring nine and conceding 18. Their six defeats make an away win less secure, but the model’s 90% combined draw-or-away probability makes the visitors difficult to oppose outright.

Pinnacle’s 2.76 for an Udinese win implies 36%, below the model’s 45%, while the 3.15 draw price implies 32%, also below the model’s 45%. Those two outcomes therefore offer the clearest potential value, although the model’s preferred double-chance angle is not available among the quoted markets. Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 carries a 57% bookmaker implication and fits the model’s low-scoring expectation, but the price gives less statistical value than either away result. Parma at 2.83 implies 35% against a 10% model probability, making the hosts unattractive. The betting tips consequently favour Udinese and the draw, with Under 2.5 Goals providing a more conservative goals angle.