Racing Santander vs Alaves - La Liga Preview

Racing Santander welcome Alaves to Estadio El Sardinero for the fifth round of La Liga, with the early-season contrast clear. Racing Santander have taken four points from four matches, recording D-L-W-L, and are seeking to build on their first top-flight win since 2012. Their latest outing ended in a 3-2 defeat at Rayo Vallecano. Alaves arrive unbeaten after three wins and a draw, sitting second with 10 points after beating Osasuna 5-2 last time out. The news coverage frames this as a test of Racing Santander’s consistency against one of the campaign’s strongest early performers, while Alaves aim to extend their excellent start.

Racing Santander most often use 4-2-3-1, whereas Alaves alternate between 3-5-2 and 5-3-2, giving the visitors a more consistently back-three-based structure. The statistical difference is substantial: Alaves lead the comparison in attack, 59% to 41%, and defence, 73% to 27%. Racing Santander score 1.8 goals per game across their last five but concede 2.0, with no clean sheets. Alaves average 2.5 scored and only 0.8 conceded, keeping two clean sheets and scoring in every match. Recent meetings have been tight overall: the sides drew 1-1 in August 2026, while the five-match record gives Alaves two wins and three draws.

The model makes Alaves the predicted side on a win-or-draw basis, assigning 45% to an away victory and 45% to the draw, against only 10% for Racing Santander. Its broader comparison favours Alaves 69% to 31%, reflecting the visitors’ stronger form rating of 71% versus 29%, as well as sizeable advantages in defence, goals and the head-to-head component. Racing Santander’s home record is unbeaten at P2 W1 D1 L0, which supports the draw probability, but Alaves have won three of four overall and have conceded just three goals. The goals outlook is restrained, with the model indicating under 2.5 for Racing Santander and under 3.5 for Alaves.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Racing Santander 2.64, the draw 3.50 and Alaves 2.71, implying 38%, 29% and 37% respectively. The draw therefore offers the clearest numerical value: the model gives it 45%, a nine-point advantage over the bookmaker’s implied figure. Alaves also merit consideration at 2.71, since their 45% model probability is eight points above the 37% implied probability. Racing Santander are priced as though they have a much stronger chance than the model allows. The model’s double-chance preference cannot be backed directly from the available markets, so the draw and away-win prices provide the more practical routes into the expected Alaves-or-draw scenario.