Real Sociedad vs Levante Preview, Prediction & Odds - La Liga

Real Sociedad face Levante in La Liga on Sunday 25 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Real Sociedad at a 45% win probability. The hosts arrive in strong domestic form, winning their last three league matches after a 5-2 success at Malaga, while a 6-0 Europa League victory over Lillestrom adds to the positive mood. Their season record stands at five wins, one draw and three defeats from nine matches, placing them fifth with 16 points. Levante beat Athletic Bilbao 3-1 last time out but remain without an away win this season. Real Sociedad are targeting another step towards the upper reaches, while Levante seek a breakthrough on the road. According to The Athletic, Jon Mikel Aramburu, Enzo Bardeli and Alejandro Primo are out.

Real Sociedad most often use a 4-4-2, deployed in five matches, with a 4-2-3-1 used four times. Levante are less consistent structurally, selecting the 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2 three times each, alongside a 4-3-3 in two games. The recent numbers favour the hosts: Real Sociedad’s form rating is 71% against Levante’s 29%, while the attacking comparison is 58%-42% and the defensive comparison 52%-48%. Real Sociedad’s last five bring 2.8 goals per game, compared with Levante’s 2.0, although both sides concede regularly. The latest meeting finished Real Sociedad 2-0 Levante in April 2026, and the hosts have won three of the last five encounters.

The model gives Real Sociedad a 45% chance of winning, the draw 45% and Levante 10%, making the double chance of Real Sociedad or draw the designated outcome. Its overall comparison leans towards the hosts at 64.8%-35.2%, with the Poisson assessment especially favourable at 70%-30%; the goals component is 67%-33%. Real Sociedad have scored 17 and conceded 17 this season, averaging 1.9 at each end, and have kept one clean sheet while failing to score three times. Levante’s corresponding figures are 15 scored, 17 conceded, two clean sheets and three blanks. The visitors’ away record is 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, whereas Real Sociedad are 2-1-1 at home.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Real Sociedad 1.59, the draw 4.70 and Levante 5.27, implying 63%, 21% and 19% respectively after margin. That makes the home win look short against the model’s 45%, while the draw offers the clearest value because its model probability is 45%, more than double the bookmaker’s implied 21%. The away price also exceeds the model’s 10% probability, but not by enough to outweigh the hosts’ statistical advantage. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.73, with Over 2.5 at 1.48; the model expects under 2.5 goals for both teams, so the higher under price is the more attractive goals angle.

Draw @ 4.70 — the model gives the draw a 45% probability against Pinnacle’s 21% implied figure.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.73 — the model’s goals expectation is under 2.5 for both Real Sociedad and Levante.