Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid - La Liga Preview

Sevilla arrive at the third round with a perfect start, having won both matches and scored five goals. Their latest result was a 3-1 victory away to Athletic Club, following a 2-1 home win over Rayo Vallecano, and the early momentum places them among La Liga’s leading sides. Atletico Madrid are also unbeaten, opening with a 2-0 win over Malaga before drawing 2-2 with Villarreal. The visitors therefore seek a response while Sevilla aim to maintain their 100% record and make an early statement against a major rival. Oso impressed for Sevilla last time out, while Giuliano Simeone scored Atletico’s late equaliser against Villarreal. Julian Alvarez is unavailable for Atletico Madrid after missing training, according to Soccer News.

The tactical contrast is clear from the preferred shapes: Sevilla have used 4-2-3-1 in both matches, whereas Atletico Madrid have split between 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2. Sevilla’s recent attacking figure is 31%, compared with 25% for Atletico Madrid, although their scoring rates are strong at 2.5 and 2.0 goals per game respectively. Both defences rate at 88% over the last five matches, with each side conceding 1.0 per game; Atletico Madrid also have one clean sheet, while Sevilla have none. Recent meetings marginally favour Atletico Madrid, who won three of the last five. Sevilla won the latest encounter 2-1 on 11 April 2026, but Atletico had previously won 3-0, 2-1 and 4-3.

The model gives Sevilla only a 10% chance of winning, against 45% for a draw and 45% for Atletico Madrid. That makes Atletico Madrid the predicted side on a win-or-draw basis, with double chance draw or Atletico Madrid as the model advice. The broader comparison is close overall, however, rating Sevilla 49.4% and Atletico Madrid 50.6%; Sevilla lead the form comparison 60% to 40%, while Atletico Madrid hold the stronger goals component, 59% to 41%, and the head-to-head component, 60% to 40%. Sevilla have scored 2.5 and conceded 1.0 per game, while Atletico Madrid have posted 2.0 and 1.0. The goals indicators point to Sevilla under 3.5 and Atletico Madrid under 2.5.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Atletico Madrid 1.98, implying 51%, despite the model assigning 45%, so the away win offers no obvious value at that number. Sevilla are 4.16, implying 24%, compared with a much lower 10% model probability. The draw at 3.46 implies 29%, while the model gives it 45%, making the stalemate the clearest value angle among the match-result markets. In the totals, Under 2.5 is priced at 1.77 and Under 3.5 at 1.33; both fit the model’s under-goal indicators, although the available probabilities are not as precise as the 1X2 estimates. The betting focus therefore falls on the draw and a restrained goals line, rather than backing Atletico Madrid outright.