SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Preview, Prediction & Odds - Bundesliga

SV Elversberg face FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on 17 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring FC Augsburg at a 45% win probability. Elversberg began with two victories but have since slipped to W W L D L, including a 0-1 defeat by Union Berlin, and have gone three matches without winning. Their 2-1-2 record leaves plenty at stake as they try to halt that decline. Augsburg arrive after W W D L D and are enjoying their strongest Bundesliga start at this stage since 2017/18. According to EuroFotbal.cz, Elversberg have failed to score in their last two league matches, while Augsburg have scored at least twice in every game and could move into the top four.

Elversberg most often use a 4-2-3-1, whereas Augsburg have primarily lined up in a 3-4-2-1, with a 5-3-2 also used once. The attacking numbers favour the visitors clearly: Augsburg’s recent attack rating is 87% against Elversberg’s 53%, and they average 2.6 goals per game compared with the hosts’ 1.6. Defensively, both register 47% in their last-five comparison and concede 1.6 per match, so the distinction is mainly in attacking output rather than defensive strength. Augsburg also lead the sole recent meeting, winning 3-1 away in the DFB Pokal on 7 August 2015. That gives them one win from one encounter.

The model gives Elversberg a 10% home win chance, with the draw and Augsburg victory both rated at 45%. Its predicted outcome is an Augsburg win, while the overall comparison favours the visitors 62.2% to 37.8%, supported by a 71% Poisson comparison and a 75% goals comparison. Elversberg have scored and conceded eight times across five matches, with one clean sheet and two games without scoring. Augsburg have produced 13 goals and conceded eight, kept one clean sheet and have not failed to score. Home and away records are similar in isolation: Elversberg are 1-0-1 at home, while Augsburg are 1-0-1 away.

Pinnacle makes Elversberg 2.49, the draw 3.72 and Augsburg 2.76, corresponding to bookmaker implied probabilities of 40%, 27% and 36%. The model is much less positive about the hosts, assigning them only 10%, while it rates the draw and away win at 45% each. That creates the clearest value on the draw at 3.72 and also makes Augsburg at 2.76 attractive, since both prices imply less than the model’s 45% assessment. Over 2.5 goals is 1.51 and under 2.5 is 2.59, but the model’s stated goals expectation is only above 1.5, so the strongest betting angles remain the two match-winner selections.

Away win @ 2.76 — Augsburg have a 45% model probability against Pinnacle’s 36% implied probability. Draw @ 3.72 — the model gives the draw a 45% chance, well above the bookmaker’s 27% implied probability.

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