VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Preview, Prediction & Odds - Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on 23 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Stuttgart at a 45% win probability. Stuttgart have taken two wins from six league matches and sit 13th after a 1-0 defeat by Hamburg, while Gladbach are bottom after losing all six. Three points would help Stuttgart recover from an underwhelming start, whereas Gladbach are trying to avoid becoming the first Bundesliga side to lose its opening seven matches. Stuttgart also drew 1-1 with Atlético Madrid in midweek, a performance that could lift confidence. According to Yahoo Sports, Josha Vagnoman is sidelined with a thigh injury, while Gladbach have nine absentees and Kevin Diks is unavailable for personal reasons.

Stuttgart most often use a 3-4-2-1, deployed in five of their six matches, with the other game using 4-2-3-1. Their recent five-game figures show 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match, alongside a 76% defensive rating, although the season record includes 10 goals conceded in six fixtures. Gladbach have split their formations between 4-2-3-1, 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1, each used twice. Their attack averages 1.6 goals across the last five, but the defence concedes 3.4 per game and has a 19% rating. Stuttgart lead the last five meetings 4-1, including 3-0 and 1-0 victories in the two latest encounters.

The model gives Stuttgart and the draw identical 45% probabilities, with Borussia Mönchengladbach on 10%, yet its predicted outcome is a Stuttgart win. Its comparison rates Stuttgart substantially higher overall, 75.4% to 24.6%, driven by advantages in form, defence, goals and the head-to-head record. Stuttgart's recent form is uneven at L-W-L-L-W-L, but Gladbach have lost six in succession. The home side has won one of two at the MHP Arena, while Gladbach are 0-3 away. Stuttgart have scored eight and conceded 10 this season, with one clean sheet; Gladbach have also scored eight but allowed 20, kept no clean sheets and failed to score twice. The goals expectation points to under 3.5 for Stuttgart and under 1.5 for Gladbach.

Pinnacle make Stuttgart strong favourites at 1.34, implying 75%, but that is far above the model's 45%, so the home price offers no apparent value. The draw is 6.01, equating to 17% against the model's 45%, making it the clearest probability-based value angle despite Stuttgart's head-to-head edge. Gladbach are 7.87, or 13% implied, compared with only 10% from the model. The goals market prices Over 3.5 at 1.74 and Under 3.5 at 2.16; the model's low team-goal expectations support the latter, though its strongest discrepancy is on the draw. The recommended tips therefore focus on the draw and a restrained total rather than the short home price.