Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Preview, Prediction & Odds - Bundesliga

Werder Bremen face FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on 19 September 2026, with the prediction model favouring an FC Augsburg win at 45%. Bremen have made an uneven start, following a defeat with a win and a draw in their last three, while their three-match record stands at one win, one draw and one loss. Augsburg are unbeaten, with two wins and a draw, and arrive above Bremen in the early table after collecting seven points to the hosts’ four. The main storyline is Augsburg’s stronger opening and Bremen’s attempt to build on last weekend’s 1-1 draw at FC Köln. According to Yahoo Sports, Bremen have several unavailable players, including Felix Agu, Justin Njinmah and Jens Stage, while Augsburg are without Anton Kade, Klaus Suso and Steve Mounié.

Bremen most often use a 4-2-3-1, deployed twice this season, with a 4-3-3 used once. Augsburg’s main shapes are a 3-4-2-1, also used twice, and a 5-3-2. The statistical contrast favours the visitors in every major comparison: Augsburg lead form 64% to 36%, attack 64% to 36% and defence 67% to 33%. Their attacking output is particularly notable, averaging 3.0 goals per game against Bremen’s 1.7, while conceding 1.0 compared with 2.0. Recent meetings also lean Augsburg’s way. They won 3-1 in May 2026 and 2-0 in January 2025, while the previous five encounters produced two Augsburg wins, two draws and one Bremen victory.

The model gives Bremen just a 10% home-win probability, with the draw and an Augsburg victory both rated at 45%. Its predicted outcome is therefore draw or FC Augsburg, combined with more than 1.5 total goals. That assessment reflects Augsburg’s unbeaten record, stronger recent form and superior attack and defence ratings, alongside a 67% to 33% edge in the defensive comparison. Augsburg have scored nine times and conceded three in three league games, keeping one clean sheet and failing to score in none. Bremen have scored five and conceded six, have no clean sheets, and have also scored in every match. Their home record is one win from one, while Augsburg have won their only away fixture.

Pinnacle’s 1X2 prices make Werder Bremen 2.31, the draw 3.83 and FC Augsburg 2.94, implying 43%, 26% and 34% respectively. Those figures differ sharply from the model: Bremen’s 10% probability makes the home price unattractive, while the draw at 3.83 offers potential value against a 45% model estimate. Augsburg at 2.94 also merits consideration, as its 34% implied probability is below the model’s 45%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.46, implying 68%, and the sides average 4.7 goals per game between them, although the model’s clearest goals signal is simply more than 1.5. The betting focus is therefore the draw, Augsburg’s win and the higher-scoring goals market.

Draw @ 3.83 — the model gives the draw a 45% probability against Pinnacle’s 26% implied figure.

FC Augsburg win @ 2.94 — Augsburg are unbeaten with nine goals scored and three conceded in three matches.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.46 — the teams average 4.7 goals per game combined this season.