Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Preview, Prediction & Odds - Bundesliga

Werder Bremen face SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on 17 October 2026, with the prediction model favouring Werder Bremen or a draw and giving the home side a 45% win probability. Bremen have taken eight points from five matches, while Paderborn have four, leaving the visitors under early pressure after three defeats. Bremen’s latest result was a spirited 2-2 draw at Borussia Dortmund, extending their unbeaten league run to four games according to Football Whispers; Paderborn last lost 0-2 to Stuttgart. The hosts are also seeking to build on two home wins. Yahoo Sports reports several Bremen absences, including Felix Agu and Justin Njinmah, while Paderborn’s Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant is unavailable.

Werder Bremen most often use a 4-2-3-1, while SC Paderborn 07 generally line up in a 3-1-4-2 or 3-5-2. That gives Bremen a more conventional four-man defensive structure, backed by stronger recent attacking figures: 2.0 goals per game and a 67% attack rating, compared with Paderborn’s 0.6 and 20%. Paderborn hold the edge defensively, with a 59% rating against Bremen’s 41%, although their defensive record has still produced seven goals conceded in five matches. The recent head-to-head record is relatively close: Bremen have won two, Paderborn one and two have been drawn. Their latest meeting finished 2-2 in a friendly on 8 August 2026.

The model gives Werder Bremen a 45% chance of victory, the draw 45% and SC Paderborn 07 just 10%, making the predicted outcome a Bremen win or draw. Its goals expectation is under 2.5 for Bremen and under 1.5 for Paderborn, pointing towards a controlled total rather than a high-scoring contest. Bremen’s broader form rating is 67% against Paderborn’s 33%, with the hosts also leading the attack comparison 77%-23%. Bremen have won both home matches, whereas Paderborn are winless away after one draw and one defeat. Bremen have scored in all five games, while Paderborn have failed to score four times and average only 0.6 goals.

Pinnacle’s 1.78 for a Werder Bremen win implies 56%, well above the model’s 45%, so the home price offers limited value despite Bremen’s perfect home record. The draw is 4.14, implying 24%, against the model’s 45%, making it the clearest value angle among the 1X2 prices, particularly with the model explicitly favouring Bremen or draw rather than an away success. Paderborn at 4.30 implies 23% but has only a 10% model probability. Under 2.5 goals at 2.55 also fits the model’s individual goal expectations, while Over 2.5 at 1.55 requires a 56% outcome. The betting focus therefore falls on the draw and under 2.5 goals.