Alaves vs Mallorca - La Liga Preview

Alaves and Mallorca meet in a tense La Liga relegation six-pointer, with both sides still looking over their shoulders. Alaves have been inconsistent all season, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Mallorca are slightly better going forward at 1.3 per game but also allow 1.5. The hosts have just three clean sheets, the visitors four, and the injury picture matters too: Alaves are without Carlos Benavidez and Facundo Garcés, while Mallorca have a longer list of absentees.

The numbers point to a very even contest, but the market leans toward Mallorca avoiding defeat, which fits the broader form trend. Win probabilities are split with Alaves at 10%, a draw at 45%, and Mallorca at 45%, so the double chance on draw or Mallorca is the sensible angle. Alaves have struggled to turn home matches into wins, while Mallorca's away record is poor but their recent results have been steadier. A low-margin game feels more likely than a clear winner.

Pinnacle price the home win at 2.13, the draw at 3.36, and Mallorca at 3.84, which makes the visitors look slightly overpriced if you trust the model's edge on the away side. For goals, Under 2.5 is 1.88 and Over 2.5 is 2.03, showing a balanced but slightly cautious market. The best value play is the double chance on draw or Mallorca, while under 2.5 can also appeal in a match with survival pressure and limited attacking separation.

Alaves vs Mallorca is a tight survival battle, and both teams have shown enough defensive fragility to keep the game competitive rather than open.