Bologna welcome AS Roma in a high-stakes Serie A meeting that could shape the European race. Bologna's recent league form has been uneven, but they remain competitive at home and have a strong defensive base with 10 clean sheets. Roma arrive with better season-long numbers and a superior back line, yet their away form has been patchy. Both teams are managing notable absences, with Bologna missing Lukasz Skorupski, Thijs Dallinga and Federico Bernardeschi, while Roma are again without Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Kone, Artem Dovbyk and Evan Ferguson.
The market leans slightly toward a tight contest, and the numbers support Bologna or draw as the safest angle. Our probabilities are 45% home win, 45% draw and just 10% away win, which reflects Bologna's home resilience and Roma's inconsistent travel record. Roma's extra quality in attack gives them a path to victory, but Bologna's ability to keep games close at the Dall'Ara makes a stalemate highly live. A 1-1 scoreline or narrow home edge looks more plausible than a clean away win.
Pinnacle's prices underline how balanced this fixture is: Bologna 3.45, draw 3.27 and Roma 2.31. That makes Roma the market favourite, but not by enough to ignore the home side's double-chance appeal. In goals markets, Over 2.5 is 2.18 and Under 2.5 is 1.76, so the book expects a fairly controlled game rather than a shootout. The best value appears to be Bologna or draw, while Under 2.5 is the secondary lean if you want a more conservative angle.
ベッティングのヒント
- Double chance: Bologna or draw — model gives Bologna 45% and draw 45%
- Under 2.5 Goals — Pinnacle prices it at 1.76 and both teams have solid defensive numbers