Oviedo’s first season back in La Liga has ended in relegation, and their recent numbers reflect a side playing for pride rather than survival: just 0.7 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded, despite 10 clean sheets. Alaves arrive with far more at stake, still hovering near the drop zone after a crucial win over Barcelona. The hosts are likely missing Leandro Dendoncker, Ovie Ejaria and Brandon Domingues, while Santi Cazorla is set for an emotional final Carlos Tartiere appearance.
The market leans toward Alaves or the draw, and the probabilities fit that view: Oviedo 10%, draw 45%, Alaves 45%. Alaves have the better attacking profile, scoring 1.2 goals per game compared with Oviedo’s 0.7, and they have been steadier in the run-in. Oviedo can frustrate opponents at home, but their lack of punch makes a home win hard to back. The safest read is double chance: draw or Alaves, with a low-scoring contest still the most likely.
Pinnacle’s prices show a competitive but not overly generous away lean: Alaves are 2.04, the draw 3.51 and Oviedo 3.84. That makes the away side only mildly favored, so the value is better in the protection markets than the straight win. Under 2.5 goals is 1.88, which is appealing given Oviedo’s scoring issues and the historical tendency for this fixture to stay tight. Over 2.5 is 2.01, but it needs a more open game than the data suggests, so the under is the sharper angle.
ベッティングのヒント
- Double chance: Draw or Alaves — predicted winner is Alaves or draw with 90% combined probability
- Under 2.5 Goals — Oviedo average 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, while this matchup often stays tight