Belgium vs Iran - World Cup Preview

Belgium and Iran meet with Group G finely balanced after both opened with draws, so the stakes are already high in Los Angeles. Belgium were underwhelming in a 1-1 draw with Egypt, although Romelu Lukaku changed the game off the bench, while Iran showed resilience by twice coming from behind to draw 2-2 with New Zealand. Belgium have Zeno Debast out and Charles De Ketelaere a doubt, while Iran are monitoring Saman Ghoddos and remain without Rouzbeh Cheshmi.

The numbers point to a tight contest, but Belgium still carry the stronger match-winning quality in advanced areas. Our lean is Belgium or draw, with win probabilities of 35% for Belgium, 35% for the draw and 30% for Iran. Belgium's attack should improve with Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku and Lukaku around the box, while Iran's counter-attacking threat and physicality make them dangerous. A 2-1 type game looks more plausible than a comfortable home win.

Pinnacle price Belgium at 1.45, the draw at 4.74 and Iran at 7.53, which makes the Red Devils clear favourites but not prohibitive ones. Over 2.5 goals is 1.82 and Under 2.5 is 2.05, so the market is split on totals, suggesting value is modest rather than obvious. The best angle is still double chance Belgium or draw, while a small lean to Over 2.5 fits the open nature of both teams' opening games and the likelihood of chances at both ends.