Cremonese host Pisa in a relegation-heavy Serie A clash, but the pressure sits more on the home side, who are still fighting to stay up. Cremonese have just one win in their last 21 league matches and have been poor at home, while Pisa are already relegated and arrive on a six-match losing run. Federico Baschirotto is out for Cremonese, while Pisa may miss Marius Marin, Matteo Tramoni and Daniel Denoon, leaving both squads weakened.
The numbers point to a tight, low-scoring contest, but Pisa’s poor away record and Cremonese’s desperation make the matchup tricky to call. The market leans toward Pisa or a draw, and that fits the data: home win 10%, draw 45%, away win 45%. Pisa’s recent head-to-head edge also matters, with three straight wins over Cremonese. Still, the hosts’ need for points should keep them competitive, so a narrow away result or stalemate looks likeliest.
Pinnacle’s odds are interesting because Cremonese are priced as short favourites at 1.83, while the draw sits at 3.58 and Pisa at 4.76, which creates potential value on the visitors or double chance. The goals lines also suggest a cagey game: over 2.5 is 2.23 and under 2.5 is 1.70, so the market expects limited scoring. Given both teams’ low scoring averages and Pisa’s relegated status, draw or Pisa looks the strongest betting angle, with under 2.5 also viable.
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- Double chance: draw or Pisa — Pisa are rated 45% to win and 45% to draw, while Cremonese have only a 10% win chance
- Under 2.5 Goals — Cremonese average 0.8 goals for and Pisa 0.7, with both sides conceding less than 2 per game on average