Leeds come into their final home game with safety already secured and a strong run of results behind them, but injuries could blunt their momentum. Noah Okafor, Ilia Gruev, Gabriel Gudmundsson and Jayden Bogle are out, while Ethan Ampadu is a major doubt and Pascal Struijk is also a concern. Brighton arrive with Champions League hopes still alive, in excellent recent form overall, though Kaoru Mitoma is ruled out. Leeds have been competitive at Elland Road, but Brighton's motivation and deeper squad make this a fascinating end-of-season fixture.
The market leans toward Brighton or the draw, and that looks fair given the numbers. Our win probabilities are Leeds 10%, draw 45% and Brighton 45%, which effectively makes the away side slight favourites on the road and a draw highly live. Brighton's stronger defensive profile, with 10 clean sheets and only 1.2 goals conceded per game, gives them an edge in tighter scenarios. Leeds have improved at home, but Brighton's need for points and better overall balance support double chance: draw or Brighton.
Pinnacle price Brighton at 2.16 for the away win, with the draw at 3.63 and Leeds at 3.44. Over 2.5 goals is 1.79, while Under 2.5 is 2.11, so the market expects a fairly open game without a huge gap between the totals. There is some value in Brighton double chance at the current away price, especially with Leeds carrying injuries. Over 2.5 goals also appeals given Leeds' 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, plus Brighton's 1.4 scored per match.
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- Double chance: draw or Brighton — Brighton are unbeaten in the model with 45% away-win probability and Leeds missing several key players.
- Over 2.5 Goals — Leeds average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, while Brighton average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- BTTS — Leeds have been scoring regularly at home, and Brighton have enough attacking quality to contribute.